Deployment of a machine learning-based predictive system for childhood diarrhea in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Abstract
Diarrhea remains a leading cause of child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, necessitating advanced predictive tools for early intervention. Despite the growing adoption of machine learning in healthcare, gaps persist in deploying models as scalable, real-world solutions. This study developed an end-to-end machine learning framework to predict diarrhea among children under five in SSA, integrating rigorous model development with Flask-based deployment for practical use. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from 27 SSA countries (2016-2024), we preprocessed data (handling missing values, feature selection, and SMOTE for class imbalance), trained a Random Forest classifier (optimized via RandomizedSearchCV), and deployed the model as a RESTful API with Flask. The final model demonstrated strong predictive power, with 79.6% accuracy and a particularly high recall of 84.1%, meaning it is exceptionally effective at identifying true diarrhea cases. Most importantly, the model is no longer just a research output; it is a deployed, interactive system ready for practical application. This work successfully demonstrates a complete pipeline from data to deployment, offering a tangible solution that can aid public health decision-making. We have proven that it is possible to close the gap between machine learning research and real-world implementation. To build on this foundation, future work should focus on enhancing the model’s interpretability for health workers, adopting more scalable deployment technologies like FastAPI and Docker, and conducting rigorous field validation with community stakeholders to ensure these tools truly meet the needs of those they are designed to serve.