MONKEYPOX: A NEW MATHEMATICAL MODEL USING THE CAPUTO–FABRIZIO FRACTIONAL DERIVATIVE

Abstract

The efficiency of various control measures to stop the spread of monkeypox disease is examined in this paper by analyzing a compartmental model for the disease using the Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative approach. The methodology of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fully parametrize the model. By conducting a thorough mathematical analysis of the model, we look into the existence and uniqueness of solutions as well as the establishment of requirements guaranteeing the rigidity and continuation of these solutions. We then analyze the fundamental reproduction number in terms of sensitivity. To provide numerical answers, the Adams–Bashforth predictor–corrector approach is utilized, which is specifically designed for the fractional derivatives of Caputo–Fabrizio. The model is numerically simulated over a range of fractional-order numbers to illustrate our results. Our study contributes significantly to the area of epidemiology by emphasizing the vital roles that effective treatment, infection awareness, and immunization programs have in significantly lowering the spread of disease.