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Fractional calculus in epidemic modeling — sharing my experience
Abstract
I have been applying Caputo fractional derivatives to SIR/SEIR epidemic models for the past 18 months. The memory effect captured by fractional order is fascinating but brings challenges:
1. Parameter identifiability: the fractional order α is highly sensitive to initial conditions
2. Numerical stability: L1 scheme works but Adams-Bashforth-Moulton is more accurate
3. Fitting COVID-19 data: fractional SEIR fits much better than classical ODE model
Has anyone combined fractional calculus with stochastic elements? Or used Bayesian inference for α estimation?
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