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Fractional calculus in epidemic modeling — sharing my experience

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Fractional calculus in epidemic modeling — sharing my experience

March 5, 2026
MIT
Publication ID: pub0000000000000000000000000000000000000005

Abstract

I have been applying Caputo fractional derivatives to SIR/SEIR epidemic models for the past 18 months. The memory effect captured by fractional order is fascinating but brings challenges: 1. Parameter identifiability: the fractional order α is highly sensitive to initial conditions 2. Numerical stability: L1 scheme works but Adams-Bashforth-Moulton is more accurate 3. Fitting COVID-19 data: fractional SEIR fits much better than classical ODE model Has anyone combined fractional calculus with stochastic elements? Or used Bayesian inference for α estimation?

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Discussion (1)

AK
Ali Khan Mar 5, 2026 · University of Lahore
I tried combining Caputo derivatives with Gaussian noise for stochasticity. The Itô interpretation becomes tricky but the results are interesting. Happy to share the MATLAB code.

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Reads 4
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